Q4 2024 TransUnion Credit Industry Insights Report explores the latest credit trends and forecasts origination growth for the year
After years of depressed origination growth due to high inflation, rising interest rates, and elevated home and vehicle prices, new account originations are expected to grow (at least moderately) across unsecured personal loans, mortgages and auto loans this year.
That’s according to TransUnion’s just-released Q4 2024 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR).
While the Federal Reserve signaled there will be fewer rate cuts in 2025 than anticipated at the end of 2024, data still points to growth across the credit spectrum.
Loan product |
Percent change in origination growth |
Auto |
+2.7% |
Mortgage (purchase) |
+13.3% |
Mortgage (refinance) |
+64.7% |
Unsecured personal loans |
+5.7% |
Additionally, signs of stabilization that began in Q3 2024 continued in Q4.
“We saw several signals inching toward a return to more typical patterns within the consumer credit market,” said Michele Raneri, TransUnion® Vice President and Head of Research.
“Originations ticked up across mortgage and auto and saw more significant growth in unsecured personal loans. In contrast, delinquencies presented more of a mixed bag, seeing increases in auto and mortgage while at the same time decreasing for unsecured personal loans and credit cards. We’ll be looking for additional signs of improved performance in these markets moving forward.”
Continue reading for more specific insights about personal loans, mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. For deeper insights into the latest consumer credit trends, register for the Q4 2024 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report webinar.
Consumer credit trends in the personal loan sector: Q4 2024
In Q4, personal loan originations continued to grow — reflecting the third consecutive quarter of YoY growth. Other insights from the report include:
- Originations for Q3 2024 stood at 5.8 million, an increase of 15% YoY, marking the first quarter of double-digit growth since Q3 2022
- Originations are expected to increase to approximately 20.8 million this year
- All risk tiers contributed to this expansion, especially the super prime and below prime tiers — which grew around 17% compared to the prior year
- This growth drove records in the volume of outstanding loans, total balances and number of consumers with a balance
- Average debt per borrower was lower YoY in Q4 2024, driven by the prime and below risk tiers
- 60+ DPD borrower-level delinquencies fell YoY in Q4 2024 to 3.57%, 33 basis points below the same quarter last year
- This decline was due to a risk mix shift as lower-risk, super prime borrowers continued to grow as a share of total loans, as well as from delinquencies among subprime borrowers which fell 136 basis points year over year
Our view:
The unsecured personal loan market continued its rebound in Q4 as originations grew year over year across risk tiers. With that growth and lenders’ optimism, this could be the beginning of a period of expansion. We anticipate lenders will continue to increase lending to riskier tiers this year as the macroeconomy moderates.
Q4 2024 unsecured personal loan trends
Personal loan metric |
Q4 2024 |
Q4 2023 |
Q4 2022 |
Q4 2021 |
Total balances |
$251 billion |
$245 billion |
$222 billion |
$167 billion |
Number of unsecured personal loans |
$29.6 million |
$28.1 million |
$28.1 million |
$22.8 million |
Number of consumers with unsecured personal loans |
$24.5 million |
$23.5 million |
$22.5 million |
$19.9 million |
Borrower-level delinquency rate (60+ DPD) |
3.57% |
3.90% |
4.14% |
3.00%
|
Average debt per borrower |
$11,607 |
$11,773 |
$11,116 |
$9,622
|
Average account balance |
$8,496 |
$8,496 |
$8,195 |
$8,195
|
Borrower-level delinquency rate (60+ DPD) |
$5.8 million |
$5.0 million |
$5.0 million |
$5.1 million |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Click here for additional unsecured personal loan industry metrics.
Consumer credit trends in the auto sector: Q4 2024
Auto originations were up year over year, largely due to growth in the super prime segment. A key driver for this growth was new light vehicle sales which have been forecasted to grow 2.8% in 2025. Other insights from the report include:
- Originations were up 1.5% YoY in Q3 2024, although they still lagged behind pre-pandemic Q3 2019
- Super prime borrower originations were up 8.5% YoY for the quarter, likely driven in part by new inventory and increases in incentives
- Other risk tiers saw YoY declines in originations, and when compared to 2019 levels, originations remained down across all risk tiers, with subprime seeing the largest decline (-27.6%)
- Leasing continued its rebound from its Q4 2022 low (17%) up to 24% of new vehicle registrations in Q4 2024
- Consumer-level delinquencies of 60+ days past due continued to tick up in Q4 2024 to 1.29%, representing an increase of five basis points YoY — and landing higher than the prior peak rate of 1.45% observed in 2009
- New vintages continued to show delinquency performance in Q4 2024 consistent with pre-pandemic periods of 2018/2019
- Used vintage delinquencies were slightly improved compared to the 2022 cohort but remained worse than 2018/2019
Our view:
Forecasted growth may be tempered as the industry and consumers navigate policy shifts introduced by the new administration. Relatively high interest rates, inflation remaining above 2%, and a still recovering used vehicle supply may continue to create affordability issues and mitigate auto originations growth. Delinquencies have now inched past a high previously seen in 2009, a trend worth keeping a close eye on.
Q4 2024 auto loan trends
Q4 2024 auto loan trends |
Q4 2024 |
Q4 2023 |
Q4 2022 |
Q4 2021 |
Total auto loan accounts |
$80.4 million |
$80.4 million |
$80.2 million |
$81.4 million |
Prior quarter originations1 |
$6.4 million |
$6.3 million |
$6.5 million |
$7.2 million |
Average monthly payment NEW2 |
$749 |
$751 |
$729 |
$655 |
Average monthly payment USED2 |
$523 |
$531 |
$527 |
$494 |
Average balance per consumer |
$24,373 |
$23,945 |
$22,998 |
$21,298 |
Average amount financed on new auto loans2 |
$42,023 |
$41,054 |
$41,943 |
$40,493
|
Average amount financed on used auto loans2 |
$26,135 |
$26,380 |
$27,451 |
$27,346
|
Consumer-level delinquency rate (60+ DPD) |
1.67% |
1.61% |
1.43% |
1.05%
|
1Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
2Data from S&P Global MobilityAutoCreditInsight, Q4 2024 data only for months of October and November.
Click here for additional auto loan industry metrics.
Consumer credit trends in the credit card sector: Q4 2024
In Q4, signs pointed to a stabilization in the credit card sector, as both the decrease in originations slowed and serious consumer-level delinquencies declined year over year for the first time since 2020. Other insights from the report include:
- Originations saw a 4.8% YoY decline in Q3 2024, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of declining new account volumes on an annual basis
- The slowdown in originations is decelerating, with the latest quarter seeing the smallest YoY decline since Q3 2023
- Super prime was the only risk tier to see originations growth (1.2% YoY) in Q3 2024, which was the first YoY growth in that risk tier since Q3 2023
- Balances continued to grow to record highs, increasing 5.7% to $1.1 trillion
- Balance growth occurred across risk tiers, though the pace of balance growth returned closer to pre-2020 levels
- Consumer-level 90+ days past due delinquencies ticked down by three basis points YoY to 2.56%, which marked the first annual decrease since 2020
- Account-level delinquencies fell by four basis points YoY to 1.46%, likely due in part to the continuation of more conservative origination strategies among lenders
Our view:
Prior predictions had anticipated a moderation in delinquency rates in Q1 2025 due to lenders’ recalibrated risk strategies and disproportionate originations in prime and above segments. At the same time, there are signs consumer demand for credit cards may be increasing as year-over-year originations declines are getting smaller, and some risk tiers, such as super prime, are increasing for the first time in several quarters.
Q4 2024 credit card trends
Credit card lending metric (bankcard) |
Q4 2024 |
Q4 2023 |
Q4 2022 |
Q4 2021 |
Number of credit cards (bankcards) |
$561.5 million |
$542.6 million |
$518.4 million |
$483.7 million |
Borrower-level delinquency rate (90+ DPD) |
2.56% |
2.59% |
2.26% |
1.48% |
Total credit card balances |
$1.11 trillion |
$1.05 trillion |
$931 brillion |
$785 billion |
Average debt per borrower |
$6,580 |
$6,360 |
$6,360 |
$5,139
|
Number of consumers carrying a balance |
$173.1 million |
$169.9 million |
$166.0 million |
$159.0 million
|
Prior quarter originations* |
$19.1 million |
$20.1 million |
$21.6 million |
$19.8 million
|
Average new account credit lines* |
$5,702 |
$5,673 |
$5,226 |
$4,468 |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
For more credit card industry information, click here for episodes of Extra Credit: A Card and Banking Podcast by TransUnion.
For more information about the report, please register for the Q4 2024 Credit Industry Insight Report webinar.
About TransUnion (NYSE: TRU)
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