Episode 40: Why Growth Persists Despite Rising Headwinds for Consumer Credit Health

Summary

S&P Global Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald returns to discuss why the US economy continues to outperform expectations despite mounting geopolitical, policy and energy shocks. He breaks down the key risks ahead — from labor market fragility to global fragmentation and the evolving role of AI in growth.

Synopsis

Recorded live at TransUnion’s 2026 Financial Services Summit, this episode features a timely conversation with S&P Global Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald on the forces shaping the macroeconomic outlook for lenders and financial institutions. While the global economy faces significant headwinds, including tariffs, energy market disruption and geopolitical tensions, Gruenwald explains that growth has remained surprisingly resilient, supported largely by a strong labor market and steady consumer activity.